Karnataka: A hung Assembly on the horizon

Karnataka: A hung Assembly on the horizon

During the last Assembly elections in Karnataka, the BJP was a splintered house and this made the task of the INC easy. In fact, the BJP in Karnataka, for long, has been struggling with leadership issues between BS Yeddyurappa and KS Eshwarappa. This has also damaged the morale of the party workers in the State.

But in recent times, the leadership issues in Karnataka have been managed very well. The BJP in Karnataka is now not just a party of BS Yeddyurappa and KS Eshwarappa. Other leaders like HN Ananth Kumar, Jagadish Shettar, DV Sadananda Gowda, R Ashoka and S Suresh Kumar have also gained prominence, thereby broadbasing the party’s leadership in the State.

Nurturing Leadership
Moreover, after the last Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership tried to resolve issues by nurturing young leaders and attracting prominent mass leaders from the INC and the JDS. The party has attracted many heavyweights like SM Krishna – one of the tallest leaders of Gowda community, Srinivas Prasad – a prominent Dalit leader, Jaya Prakash – a strong Bunt leader and Kumara Bangarappa – a popular leader of the Idiga community.

The party has also created a second rung leadership that connects it with all prominent castes in Karnataka and now has a fair representation of all prominent castes viz CT Ravi – a Vokkaliga, V Sunil Kumar – an Idiga, Shobha Karandlaje – a Bunt-Vokkaliga, and Prahlad Joshi – a Brahmin.

The party has a strong vote share in coastal Karnataka and after the joining of Bunt leader Jaya Prakash, it has only grown in strength. Similarly, it has a strong base in Bombay Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka and may win most of its seats there. But with the help of new leaders, the BJP must increase its vote share in south Karnataka where it has lagged behind.

If all its leaders work in tandem, the BJP can get close to forming a government. They may still need to join hands with a few independents or JDS to form a stable government.

Fading Fortress of JDS
The biggest challenge for the JDS is its positioning. The JDS is considered as a party of a single community – Vokkaligas, run by a political family. This positioning, one one hand is its biggest strength owing to its vote bank, but on the other hand, hampers its growth and stops it from emerging as a pan-Karnataka party.

While we are witnessing the rise of regional political parties across India, Karnataka is witnessing a decline in the popularity of regional parties. The JDS, the only prominent regional party in Karnataka, has reduced itself to a party of agriculture and Vokkaligas. Its core vote bank — the Vokkaligas — too seems to be shifting their loyalty as they see the rise of DK Shivakumar in the INC. Moreover, urban Karnataka believes that HD Kumaraswamy is not a very progressive leader.

It is also popularly believed that the JDS leadership is losing control over its local leadership. The same is reflected in the conduct of MLAs Zameer Ahmed Khan, Akhand Srinivasa Murthy, Balakrishna, Chaluvarayaswamy, Bheema Naik, Iqbal Ansari and Ramesh Bandisiddegowda, who voted against the party guidelines during the last Rajya Sabha elections. These rebel MLAs have decided to shift to the INC. The rebel leaders have raised issues related to the growing perception of it being a family run party and its leadership. Amid all these controversies, the party has lost a good number of mass leaders and voters’ trust.

But this is not the first time that the JDS is facing such challenges. In the past, the core vote bank of the party had backed former Prime Minister Deve Gowda despite odds. The leadership of Deve Gowda has been the biggest strength of the party. I am sure that in the ensuing election too, with the help of his loyal followers, he will manage to retain most of the current Assembly seats.

The JDS enjoys a strong vote share in Mandya, Mysuru and in the Hyderabad Karnataka region but has little or no presence beyond these regions. Though the party has scope to do well under the guidance of Deve Gowda, it is not innovative and aggressive enough. It is reluctant to explore new equations to win additional vote bank.

The Next Election
The next election is going to be an intense triangular fight among the INC, BJP, and the JDS. A pre-poll alliance is mostly a big no for all political parties but a post-poll alliance may be an option.

If one were to go by the popular sentiments, we are likely to witness a hung Assembly and JDS and INC will join hands to form the government. But politics makes strange bedfellows and I believe that it will be BJP-JDU government and not an INC-JDU if there is a hung Assembly.
An arrangement between the BJP and JDS sounds impossible as we all believe that BS Yediyurappa must not have forgotten the betrayal of HD Kumaraswamy. But we must understand that Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy are seasoned politicians and they would align the political equation to their benefit. The BJP central team will also not let go of the opportunity and find out a win-win for both Kumaraswamy and Yediyurappa.

Most importantly, it will be advantage JDS if they join BJP in case of a hung Assembly. The BJP-JDS combination will be a win-win alliance for municipality, State government, as well as for the Centre.

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/a-hung-assembly-on-the-horizon

Triangular contest on cards

Triangular contest on cards

Anti-incumbency is yet to set in and if Siddaramaiah plays positive, he has a good chance to retain power

The Indian National Congress (INC) is one of the strongest political parties in Karnataka. It has managed to retain 35% vote share in the State during the last three Assembly elections.

Moreover, the spread of this vote share is almost uniform across the State unlike the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal Secular (JDS), which have pockets of strong vote banks.

The regional party, JDS, has held on to its 18-20% vote bank for the last three Assembly elections. The BJP has been adding voters to its fold during the last two decades, and in the last two elections, its vote share hovered around 30%.

Karnataka is one of the unique States where all three parties have strong vote banks and mostly these loyal voters don’t shift sides. This is reflected in the vote share of these political parties over the last two decades.

In the ensuing Assembly election, it is likely that we will witness a very interesting fight among the three key political parties of Karnataka – INC, BJP, and JDS. To understand the emerging electoral situation, let us explore the current state of all the three parties.

Stronghold of INC
If I were to go by the popular belief that there is a growing voice of anti-incumbency in Karnataka, I would have to pronounce the fall of INC in Karnataka. But I would not buy the argument blindly that INC has failed to retain its popularity in Karnataka, and people are waiting for elections to teach them a lesson. Yes, there is a murmur of anti-incumbency in a few pockets.

The sentiment of anti-incumbency in a few pockets is very normal for any incumbent government. But the anti-incumbency is not uniform across Karnataka and there are pockets where voters are happy with the work of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. So, it will be wrong to classify the current situation as strong anti-incumbency.

This anti-incumbency can be neutralised with the help of a few positive moves and that is what Siddaramaiah has been doing lately. He has mostly neutralised the mood of anti-incumbency with the help of pro-poor policies, stand on Hindi imposition, positive moves towards the Karnataka Flag issue among others. These moves in recent times have helped the Chief Minister establish himself as one of the tallest mass leaders in the State.

Mass Leaders
In Karnataka, the INC has many other strong leaders like DK Shivakumar, G Parameshwara, KH Muniyappa and SN Patil. The collective might of these mass leaders can help it win the desired vote share.

Moreover, in recent times the INC has played the caste equation very well. It has strong representation from all influential castes in the State. For instance, Siddaramaiah is the tallest leader from the Kuruba community, DK Shivakumar has emerged as the strongest leader of Vokkaligas, G Parameshwara and KH Muniyappa are strong Dalit leaders, SN Patil represents the dominant Lingayat community and Jarkiholi brothers have a huge following among tribals. It will only be right to say that no other political party has such well-defined representation.

The JDS is mostly perceived as a party of the Vokkaligas and the BJP as a party of the Lingayats. The INC enjoys the strong backing of Muslims, Kurubas and Dalits, but it is perceived as a party of all castes and religions.

This is why unlike the BJP and JDS, the INC enjoys a uniform vote share across all Assembly constituencies. The INC is a strong player in all the 242 Assembly constituencies. Its candidates have been the winner or a close second in almost all the Assembly seats.

Rise of BJP
In the last Assembly election in Karnataka, the BJP was a divided house. The vote share was split between – BJP, KJP of Yeddyurappa and BSRCP of Bellary Sriramulu. Now that all three parties are back as one united party, the BJP vote share increased to 32% in the Assembly election of 2013. The united BJP also managed to get 43.4% vote share in the 2014 parliamentary election as against 41.2% vote share in the previous elections.

In the ensuing election, which the BJP will contest as a united, cohesive party, it is expected to pose a much stiffer challenge to the INC.

Also published at https://telanganatoday.com/triangular-contest-on-cards

Relying on regional aspirations

Trajectory of regional parties

Strong regional aspirations power these parties but limiting their leadership to the founder’s family begins the rot

Continuing from yesterday, this part explores each category of regional parties. While some regional parties have the DNA of the INC, many parties follow in the footsteps of the Janata Party.

DNA of INC
The 70s, 80s and the 90s witnessed a decline in the popularity of the Congress. During the same time, INC (Indian National Congress) also saw a rise in the control and command style of functioning. This led to many ambitious regional leaders forming their own parties. The formation of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is the classic case as it was a result of the arrogance of the INC central leadership.

Over the years, the inability of the INC to meet the aspirations of its popular regional leaders coupled with its arrogance led to the creation of the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and others. The local leaders who enjoyed mass following demanded that they deserved a prominent place in the political landscape and got it by establishing a successful political party.

Most of these regional political parties over the years have become strong regional political dynasties. The genesis of these political parties and the exit of these popular leaders have significantly contributed to the decline in the popularity of the INC.

DNA of Janata Party
The rise of Indira Gandhi as the undisputed leader of India also resulted in the rise of unstructured opposition in the form of Janata Party. The Janata Party movement, which enjoyed a strong mass following and trust of the voters could not manage its growth and popularity.
The biggest problem for the Janata Party was identifying a leader who could efficiently manage the pack of strong, aggressive, passionate and ambitious leaders, who enjoyed a mass following in their respective pockets. The Janata party started to disintegrate even before it reached its full potential, resulting in the rise of regional parties such as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Samajwadi Party (SP), Janata Dal Secular (JDS), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD).

The emergence of these regional parties was a function of regional pride, regional caste equation and, most importantly, ambition of the regional leaders. Most of these regional parties such as RJD, RLD, SP, JDS build their base around the caste equation of the tallest leader.

Demand for Separate State
The third set of regional parties are the ones born out of movements that promoted regional culture and focused on the ethnic roots. The political leaders in Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Telangana agitated for separate States based on their unique regional, cultural, and ethnic traditions.

Over time, the politicians who were agitating for separate States formed a new regional political party. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in Jharkhand, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in Telangana and Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) in West Bengal were formed as the result of separate statehood movements. The scenario is no different in Maharashtra where the regional party Shiv Sena (SS) followed by the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) emerged from a movement in Mumbai demanding preferential treatment for Maharashtrians over migrants to the city.

At times, political parties also fight for autonomy and make it the core of their existence. The National Conference (NC) and the PDP in Jammu and Kashmir are demanding greater autonomy and powers to the State of Kashmir.

Regional Pride and Development
Regional parties also fight for the recognition of cultural rights, unique identity and regional pride. Parties like Shiv Sena in Maharashtra focus on regional rights and pride and the BSP fights for the identity and development of the Dalits.

The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is known for fighting the problem of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam. These set of political parties are flag bearers of regional growth and development.

Fall from Grace
Most of the regional chieftains viz, Deve Gowda, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Parkash Singh Badal, N Chandrababu Naidu and M Karunanidhi soon after gaining power converted the regional party or the movement into a family affair. This has led to the rise of the regional political family in the last three decades.

We are also witnessing the rise of new political families in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal as the BSP supremo Mayawati is promoting her brother Anand Kumar and nephew Aakash, and Mamata Banerjee is promoting her nephew Abhishek Banerjee in the party.

This rise of political families is the biggest hindrance to the growth of the idea of regional parties. We are witnessing its adverse impact in the form of decline in the popularity of the regional political parties including the RJD, JDS and the BSP. The decline in the popularity of regional parties and a sudden rise in popularity of a national party is a function of the trust deficit in regional parties.

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/trajectory-of-regional-parties

Relying on regional aspirations

Relying on regional aspirations

These parties are preferred in many States as people believe their interests are better represented by one of their own.

The emergence of regional political parties in India’s political spectrum is one of the most important political developments in the post-independence era. Regional parties have had a big impact for almost three decades and are still playing a crucial role in government formation, both in Parliament and in Assemblies. It will not be off the mark to state that this is the era of co-existence of national and regional parties. This is one of the main reasons why Prime Minister Narendra Modi even after getting an absolute majority continued to take regional alliance partners along.

At present, India is governed by national parties – Indian National Congress (INC), and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — and many strong regional parties (see graph). A closer look on the co-existence of national and regional parties gives us three set of States.

Charismatic Leadership
First, there are States such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh which are mostly governed by the national parties – INC and BJP, and regional parties have very little or no say in these States. Second, there are States like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Bihar, where regional parties are stronger than the national parties. Third, in States like Jharkhand and Karnataka regional parties are not very strong and need the help of the national parties to form government.

The regional parties, irrespective of the State they come from, were formed by charismatic leaders who enjoyed unprecedented regional following and cult status. Here again, these leaders can be defined in two categories – caste-based leaders and region-based leaders. A set of these mass leaders like Deve Gowda, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati enjoy a loyal base of specific caste, religion or belief system and the other set of leaders like K Chandrashekhar Rao, Naveen Patnaik, Parkash Singh Badal, N Chandrababu Naidu and M Karunanidhi enjoy the status of flag bearer of regional pride and identity.

Most of these leaders could not grow beyond their vote bank and over the years have not reinvented themselves to gain additional votes. Leaders who enjoyed a loyal base of specific caste, religion or belief system have 20-25% of the vote share and those who are the flag bearer of regional pride mostly enjoy 30-40% of the vote share. That makes the positioning of regional pride and identity stronger than the positioning based on a specific caste, or belief system.

Rise of Regional Parties
If we evaluate the emergence of the regional parties, we observe that the big reasons for the formation of regional parties had been the resentment of the locals over the treatment received from the Central government, rise in the ambition of the regional leaders, rise in the regional pride and local issues, and resentment against the central party leadership. The rise of the regional parties is not a recent phenomenon; this trend started in the early 60s.

The first 60 years of independence saw the Congress being in power at the Centre. And during the first four decades, the central leadership was held mostly by the Gandhi-Nehru family and the States were managed by the Congress stalwarts who enjoyed mass following at the regional and State level.

The situation in the South Indian States started to change in the 60s. The politics of Tamil Nadu began witnessing a rise in discomfort with the central leadership, increase in the sentiments of regional pride and rise in the ambition of regional leaders. These factors triggered various regional movements that led to the rise of Dravidian parties.

This was the beginning of a trend, which caught on in many States and in the years that followed saw the emergence of caste and religion-based political parties, led by ambitious regional leaders with a mass following in their areas. It will not be wrong to say that most of the regional parties that emerged in the 80s and 90s actually trace their origins to national parties, either the INC or Janata Dal. The other set of regional parties were formed in search of statehood or identity.

We will explore each category of the regional parties in the second part of the piece

Also published at https://telanganatoday.com/relying-on-regional-aspirations