Andhra Pradesh to Witness a New Political Equation

Andhra Pradesh to Witness a New Political Equation

by with No Comment Politics

Andhra Pradesh is a young state with roughly 42 percent voters who are below 34 years of age and 65 percent of voters below 45 years of age. These young voters have very different requirements, which is beyond the traditional vote bank requirements. They are restless and hungry for growth. I strongly believe this election, the state will vote for the party that will demonstrate commitment to development and growth. This election will not be about Cash, Caste, and Charisma but will only be about commitment of great future, growth and development.

As we know that in the last election all districts were dominated only by two regional parties TDP, and YSRCP and the national parties BJP and INC had no greater relevance in the state. In my views, this election the dynamics of the political campaign will be different. The state will get into exploratory mode and they will experiment beyond the dominant parties TDP and YSRCP. I have very strong feeling that this election we will also witness emergence of a new regional party and the national party, BJP establishing itself as a strong force in the state. The path to victory will not be easy this season. Let’s explore the possibilities.

 Rise of YSRCP

The party in opposition – YSRCP is working hard to win the state and if we have to believe the ground reports they may form the next government in the state. The YSRCP chief Jagan Mohan Reddy is working hard to win the trust and support of the voters. It is widely believed that his Praja Sankalp Padyatra is huge success but if I have to evaluate the campaign performance on the parameters of efforts, spend, visibility, and engagement, I will call it a moderate success.

I visited one of the pockets of Vijayawada to understand the on-ground impact of the padyatra and I was not much impressed by the return of investment or the return of efforts by Jagan. In my views, there was a sizable mismatch in campaign resource mobilization, the optics and theatrical of the padyatra and crowd turnout. Having said this, I still believe that the campaign performance was testimony of the popularity of Jagan and in way announcement that probably he is the tallest leader in current day Andhra Pradesh.

 Fall of TDP

As of now, the dominance of the Jagan can only be challenged by the current Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu (CBN) and his party TDP. We all know that the last election CBN was not winning on his own. He won last election as he managed to stitch a unique alliance with BJP, and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena and this alliance helped him win the 2014 election. Now that TDP is out of the NDA and BJP, and Jana Sena mostly will not support CBN in the 2019 election, the road ahead for CBN is not easy. It is widely believed that this election he may go solo; and if CBN is going solo he is bound to lose this election.

In recent times, CNB has been targeting BJP and accusing them of going back on the promise of granting special category status to Andhra Pradesh. This narrative has no unique identity and all other parties – YSRCP, INC, and others will also bank on the same storyline. It will not be wrong to say that TDP today has no unique storyline to win trust of voters and in the progressive state like Andhra Pradesh one can’t win election without a compelling story. Worst, CNB is hell bent on erasing the footprint of old stories by extending hands towards INC. This move will definitely be seen as CBN’s deviation from the ideology of TDP founder NT Rama Rao, who wanted to unite all non-Congress parties to forge an alliance. I believe these moves will only pull down the vote share of the party.

Ascend of BJP

I believe soon BJP will open up a battlefront in Andhra Pradesh against CBN, and YSR Congress will also support BJP in the fight against TDP. The central leadership, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Party president Amit Shah with Andhra Pradesh state BJP president Kanna Lakshminarayna are working hard to finalise political strategy to be adopted by the BJP in Andhra Pradesh ahead of 2019 elections. Kanna Lakshminarayana, in my views, would lead the party in Andhra Pradesh with an aim to win more number of Lok Sabha seats and position party as the largest opposition in the state.

The option of BJP working out a north-east like equation and attempting to form a government in the state can’t be ruled out. The party to achieve the objective mostly will work on their basic campaign framework strengthening the grassroots through panna pramukhs, booth-level committees and door-to-door campaigns and on-boarding senior leaders from other parties. I am quite certain that BJP, and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena will forge a pre-poll alliance. If I have to believe the speculation and the on-ground movements there will be vertical split in TDP and the new group may join the NDA.

Survival of INC

BJP, on the one hand where we are witnessing assertive, agile and aggressive team committed to build party with help of organic and inorganic growth models; INC, on the other hand is surrounded by legacy, loyalty, and lethargy proposing to revive party. The party recently Andhra Pradesh pointed Oommen Chandy as party in-charge of Andhra and hoping to revive the state under his guidance. This veteran INC leader has a tough task ahead as the party failed to win even a single Assembly seat in the state after the bifurcation.

I believe that most of the people in Andhra Pradesh are congress supporters at heart just that they are deeply hurt and disgruntle. I believe INC still has a place in the hearts of the people in the state and, therefore, there is indeed a chance to revive the party but INC in the current avatar may still struggle to reach double digit vote share. The party needs young leaders who can outsmart assertive, agile and aggressive approach of BJP, and a strong storyline to win hearts of the voters. One of the ways for INC to win back hearts of voters of Andhra Pradesh by helping state get Special Category Status. Though this move will not help them get a lion share in the state but definitely will help party revive.

The new political landscape in Andhra Pradesh is going to be fresh and progressive but will the old artist script the story or new one will replace the old guards is yet another story in making.

Also published at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/andhra-pradesh-witness-new-political-equation-braj-mohan-chaturvedi-/

Karnataka: Too tough to call

Karnataka: Too tough to call

by with No Comment Politics

A classic case where the BJP may win without any strengths and INC may lose for its weaknesses

Coastal Karnataka

The region has three districts – Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi accounting for 19 seats. Coastal Karnataka is the stronghold of the BJP and all the three MP seats are held by it.

However, in the 2013 Assembly elections, the INC did extremely well here winning most of the seats. The BJP then was a divided house but now they are united. The JDS has very little presence and depends on the charisma of individual leaders.

Dakshina Kannada (Mangalore): The district has witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and INC in the last few elections. It has been a strong INC bastion but many INC leaders, including Janardhana Poojary, are unhappy with the Chief Minister and district in charge minister on their minority appeasement policies. This might help the BJP consolidate its position here.

Udupi: The BJP had swept this district in 2008 but lost ground in 2013. The united BJP in 2018 is a strong house with mass leaders like Haladi Srinivas Shetty and Jayaprakash Hegde.

Uttara Kannada (Karwar): It witnesses a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC except in two seats where the JDS is strong. This election, the BJP tried hard to consolidate its position riding on pro-Hindu sentiments.

Old Mysore and Bangalore

Bangalore is part of the Old Mysore region but the voting pattern here is very different from the rest of the region. It has for long been a stronghold of the BJP. Moreover, the major local community of the city – Brahmins — normally favour the BJP.

Though there has been a direct contest between the BJP and the INC, in two seats, the JDS puts up a tough fight. In 2013, even with the divided house, the BJP got 12 seats but in the 2015 BBMP polls, it could get only 100 of the 198 seats.

Bangalore Urban has 28 Assembly constituencies. Rest of the Old Mysore region has 87 Assembly seats in 13 districts — Davangere, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Shimoga, Chikkamagalur, Hassan, Kodagu, Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Bangalore Rural, Kolar, Chikkaballapur.
The INC dominates the region. While the BJP is a strong competition in Chikkamagalore, Shimoga, Kodagu, Davanagere, Tumkur, and Bangalore Rural, the JDS is strong in Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Hassan, and Ramanagara.

Old Mysore is dominated by Vokkaliga and Kurbas. The BJP is the only party that does not have good support of the Vokkaliga community. With the induction of SM Krishna, a Vokkaliga, the party may gain some confidence of these voters.

A detailed analysis will help us understand the situation of Old Mysore better.
Davangere: The area sees a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC except in one seat where the JDS too is present.

Chitradurga: Though it has witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and INC, independents have surprised them. This election, the united BJP is in a good position with ST leader B Sriramulu back in its fold.

Tumkur: Sees a triangular contest in 8 seats where BJP has a presence. In another three, it’s a contest between the INC and JDS. The JDS has a presence in all the seats.

Shimoga: Is the home district of BS Yeddyurappa and Eshwarappa. Shimoga is also considered as the Karnataka headquarters of the BJP. In a few seats here, it’s a triangular contest and in others, it is a direct fight between the BJP and the INC.

Chikkamagalur: In 2008, the BJP had won 4 seats but as a divided house, it could only win 2 seats. The minority politics of the INC will help the BJP consolidate Hindu voters here.
Hassan: It is the home district of HD Deve Gowda and the JDS is very strong here. This election we may witness a rise in BJP vote share owing to its Parivarthana Yatra.

Kodagu (Madikeri): Support for Tipu Jayanti by the INC would polarise votes in favour of the BJP.

Mysore: It is Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s home district. It would be a tough fight between the INC and JDS.

Chamarajnagar: Sees a triangular contest among the BJP, INC, and the JDS-BSP alliance. The results here would be very interesting as the JDS and the BSP have joined hands and prominent Dalit leader Sreenivasa Prasad has joined the BJP.

Mandya: The fight is between the INC and the JDS. BJP doesn’t have a presence in this district.

Bangalore Rural: In 2008, the BJP won 3 seats but lost all in 2013 election. Bangalore Rural is now dominated by the JDS.

Kolar: This is one of the rare areas where independents have a stronghold. — Concluded

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/too-tough-to-call

Karnataka Assembly Election - My Prediction

Karnataka Assembly Election – My Prediction

by with No Comment Politics

Karnataka assembly election is one of the key political contests before getting into parliamentary election in 2019. It is important for INC to win Karnataka as it is one of the largest states where it is still in power. BJP wants to win the state as Karnataka is perceived as the gateway to south India. It is also important for JDS as the performance in this election will decide its future in regional and national politics.

It is very important to understand the demography, cultural, and ethnic dynamics of Karnataka to understand the election dynamics. The Karnataka can be divided in four distinct regions for political analysis – Mumbai Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, and Old Mysore and Bangalore. Each of these regions has a very different voting pattern and has always voted as a distinct group.

Mumbai Karnataka – Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Dharwad, Gadag, and Haveri, has historically witness a very close fight between INC and BJP. It is a Lingayat dominated area which is considered as the backbone of the BJP. The astute politician Siddaramiah is trying his best to break the monolithic BJP vote bank by fueling the idea of giving a separate religious status to Lingayats. The other dominant force in the region is Marathi influence, and Mahadayi issue.

The popularity of BJP in the Mumbai Karnataka region is function of mass leaders such as B S Yeddyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Prahlad Joshi, and the foundational work done by the RSS. Moreover, the pro Muslim image of INC would also help BJP consolidate vote share in this region. The Mumbai Karnataka region has contributed to the success of BJP in 2008 and mostly would do the same in the upcoming election. In Mumbai Karnataka, INC may win 16 seats, BJP may get 28 seats, and rest may go to JDS and independents.

 Hyderabad Karnataka – Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Bellary, Koppal has Hyderabad influence. In this region Dalit, Minority, Reddy-Vokkaliga, and Lingayats are key influencers. Both INC and BJP has strong regional leaders in this region. On the one hand Hyderabad Karnataka is dominated by the BJP leaders like Reddy brothers, and B Sriramulu on the other it is home to one of the tallest INC leader Mallikarjun Kharge and Anil Lad.

The outcome of the 2018 election results of Hyderabad Karnataka region would mostly decide the fate of the next government in the state. This is the only region where the fight between INC and BJP would be very close and critical. In Hyderabad Karnataka, INC may win 13 seats, BJP may get 26 seats, and rest may go to JDS and independents.

Coastal Karnataka – Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi is presumably the stronghold of BJP. This is yet another region where BJP enjoys the fruit of work done by the RSS. Moreover, the pro Muslim image of INC would also help BJP consolidate vote share in this region.

At present all the three MP seats are held by BJP. However, in 2013 assembly elections INC did extremely well in this region winning most of the seats. The last assembly election BJP was a divided house but now all the three factions have got united and the party is expected to do well. It is widely predicted that BJP in the Coastal Karnataka will mostly win 12 seats leaving 7 for INC and others.

Old Mysore and Bangalore holds the key to the government formation in the state. Bangalore is a part of Old Mysore region but the voting pattern of Bangalore is very different from the rest of Old Mysore region. Bangalore is a cosmopolitan city, with highest concentration of educated and migrant middle class in the state. It has for long been the stronghold of BJP. In Bangalore, there has been a direct contest between BJP and INC. Bangalore Urban has 28 assembly constituencies out of which BJP may win 14 seats, INC 12 seats, and 2 seats many go to JDS.

Rest of the Old Mysore region has 81 assembly constituencies which are dominated by Vokkaliga, and Kurba. Among the three parties who have strong play in this region, BJP is the only party that doesn’t enjoy great support of the dominant Vokkaliga community. Probably, with the induction of SM Krishna, a Vokkaliga into BJP, the party may also gain some confidence of Vokkaliga voters. JDS is strong among Vokkaligas and INC also enjoys strong support of Vokkaliga, and Kurb community. The voters sentiment suggest that BJP is strong competition to INC in Chikkamagalore, Shimoga, Kodagu, Davanagere, Tumkur, and Bangalore Rural; and JDS is strong completion to INC in Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Hassan, and Ramanagara. In the Rest of Old Mysore INC may get 25 seats, JDS may win 32 seats, and BJP may get 27 seats.

Old Mysore and Bangalore will help us predict that INC may get 37 seats, JDS may win 34 seats, and BJP may get 41 seats. This is the region which is traditionally a strong hold of JDS and INC but BJP has managed to make inroads in many districts of the region uprooting JDS and INC. The strong identity politics is helping BJP on the one hand and hurting INC and JDS on the other. INC and JDS can still change the dynamics of the game in the region but as of now the effort made by INC and JDS are not in positive direction.

The current status

As of now this election result is mostly tilting towards BJP. In my views INC may get 73 seats, JDS may win 35 seats, BJP may get 107 seats, and rest may go to independents. I won’t be surprised if BJP manages to get majority of its own. The overall effort made by the INC and JDS are not in the direction which can challenge the BJP dominance. Till recently it was good to say that efforts made by BJP was not commendable but they were better than the INC and JDS but in the last leg of campaign PM Narendra Modi’s aggressive reach out has changed the dynamics.

 It is a classic case where BJP is not winning on their strengths but INC is losing this election on its weakness. It will be not wrong to say that, INC once again is offering BJP a state on silver platter.

Also published at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/karnataka-assembly-election-my-prediction-braj-mohan-chaturvedi-/

Karnataka: Close and critical call

Karnataka: Close and critical call

by with No Comment Politics

Demography, cultural and ethnic dynamics play an important role in this southern State

The Karnataka Assembly election is one of the key political contests before the parliamentary election of 2019. It is important for the INC to win Karnataka as it is the largest State where it is still in power. The BJP wants to win Karnataka as the State is perceived as the gateway to south India. It is also important for the JDS as its performance will decide its future in politics.

There are many political parties in the field — INC, BJP, JDS, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Maharastra Ekikarana Samiti (MES), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Mahila Empowerment Party (MEP) — but the fight is mainly among the INC, BJP and the JDS.

It is important to know the demography, cultural, and ethnic dynamics of Karnataka to understand the election dynamics. Karnataka can be divided into four distinct regions – North-West Karnataka (Mumbai Karnataka), North-East Karnataka (Hyderabad Karnataka), Coastal Karnataka, and Old Mysore and Bangalore. In this part, we analyse the first two regions:

North-West Karnataka (Mumbai Karnataka)
Mumbai Karnataka is a stronghold of the BJP. In a few seats, the JDS can challenge the dominance of the INC and the BJP, but this dominance is owing to strong candidates rather than the party. Mumbai Karnataka is Lingayat-dominated. Siddaramiah is trying his best to break the monolithic BJP vote bank by giving separate religious status for Lingayats. The other dominant force is Marathi influence and the Mahadayi issue.

Karnataka Election

The popularity of the BJP here is because of mass leaders BS Yeddyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Prahlad Joshi, and the foundational work done by the RSS. Moreover, the pro-Muslim image of the INC would also help the BJP consolidate vote share in this region. A detailed analysis of all the six districts will help understand the situation better.

Belgaum: Of the 18 seats, there has been a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC in 15. In three seats, the MES is strong and there is a straight fight between the MES and BJP. The BJP is quite strong in this district. In 2013, the divided BJP got 11 seats – BJP (9), KJP (1), BSRCP (1), with roughly 40% votes. If the BJP manages to consolidate Hindu (Kannada and Marathi) votes, it can win most seats.

Bagalkot: It was BJP’s fort in 2008 with 47% vote share, but the numbers changed in 2013 and the party won only one seat. The Parivarthana Yatra by Yeddyurappa was well received and if BJP maintains the momentum, it could double its tally.

Karnataka Election

Bijapur: The INC may challenge the dominance of the BJP here by fueling the Lingayat issue but the BJP local leadership has put up a spirited fight.

Dharwad: This region witnesses a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC. The JDS has a presence in one seat. In 2013, the united BJP got roughly 40% and INC 37% vote share; and in 2008, it was 47% and 39% respectively.

Gadag: The BJP had swept all the seats in 2008 and lost all in 2013 due to the division of votes between the BJP, KJP and the BSRCP.

Haveri: The BJP is very strong here and had won 5 seats in 2008 with 42% votes. With strong candidates, it may repeat the performance.

The Mumbai Karnataka region contributed to the success of BJP in 2008. Backed by its Parivarthana Yatra, the region is likely to do the same this time too. But the Lingayat card may change the numbers.

North-East Karnataka (Hyderabad Karnataka)
There is some amount of Telugu dominance in this region. With 40 Assembly constituencies, it has a strong mix of Dalit, Minorities, Reddy-Vokkaliga and Lingayat voters.

The region, on one hand, is dominated by BJP leaders like Reddy brothers and B Sriramulu and, on the other, is home to tallest INC leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Anil Lad. All the six districts – Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Bellary, Koppal would witness a close contest between the INC and the BJP.

Bidar: The JDS can play a spoiler. In the last election, the united BJP got 38% and the united INC (after Karnataka Makkala Paksha joining it) had 34% vote share. The Parivarthana Yatra might have a positive influence here.

Gulbarga: This district has 13 Assembly constituencies. Here, Yadgir needs a special mention as this district was created by the BJP and is now the party’s stronghold. The JDS has a strong candidate in one seat. Moreover, the united BJP also performed very well in zilla panchayat elections though, the INC won the Gulbarga parliament seat. The fight here will mostly be a function of the right candidate selection.

Raichur: Here 4 seats are reserved for the STs and one for SCs. The district has mostly witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC except in 2 seats where the JDS has strong candidates. It is important to note that in the last Assembly election, of the 47% vote share of united BJP, 17% was managed by the Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party (BSRCP) of Sreeramulu. With Sreeramulu back in the BJP, the party could do well.

Bellary: While 5 seats are reserved for STs, 2 are for SCs. Bellary is Sreeramulu’s home district and a power centre of the Reddy Brothers.

Koppal: JDS is strong in one seat. As the BJP was a divided house, the INC won the last election in this district. If the voters go back to the united BJP, the same will be reflected in the results.

The outcome of the 2018 election results of the Hyderabad Karnataka region would mostly decide the fate of the next government in the State. This is the only region where the fight between the INC and the BJP would be very close and critical. In the other regions, the outcome is mostly defined and very little can be changed.

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/close-and-critical-call

Rise of regional muslim parties

Rise of regional muslim parties

by with No Comment Politics

Muslims have been a trusted vote bank for many parties but new players are changing the old dynamics

In India, the world of politics remains the same, only the reference point changes. On one hand, there is a political party that has aligned its ideology with the RSS. This political party has been classified as non-secular or communal as it has differentiated itself from all others by aligning itself to Hindu ideologies. This is a classic case of differentiation as not only the party in question but also all other political parties who claim to be secular have labelled it as non-secular or communal.

In the process, they helped it come to power by joining their share of voice against it and thereby polarised the voter’s mind. Moreover, there are two other not-so-non-secular parties – the Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena, both of which have aligned with the BJP.

Defining Secularism
On the other hand, the list of secular parties is very long — the largest being the Indian National Congress (INC), followed by the Left, Samajwadi Party, BSP and the DMK. Political parties who have positioned themselves as champions of secularism are facing a big challenge in appropriately defining secularism.

Those who have classified the BJP as the only non-secular or communal party have not classified the other political parties viz, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) as non-secular or communal in nature. Major political parties, including the INC, Left, TMC, BSP and the DMK, believe that anything pro-Muslim is secular in nature.

Changing Game
The Muslims have been the most trusted vote bank in our election system and hence all secular parties play the game of winning their trust. At the national level, the INC banks on the Muslims and at the regional level the Left, TMC, SP, BSP, DMK and others have been focusing on the Muslim vote share.

For long, the secular parties have been playing the same game of ‘minority vote bank politics’. They have been successful in uniting Muslim votes for ages but only made promises without fulfilling them. Muslim voters also experimented with various secular regional and national parties but without any tangible benefits. The community seems to have realised that they don’t get any results from any party. The game of vote bank politics remains the same but the yardsticks change with changing political parties.

Now, the format of vote bank politics, which was well defined and consistent, is witnessing a change. New players are emerging and changing the dynamics in their favour. This also could be a function of the rise in Muslim vote share in different parts of India.

PR Ramesh wrote in the Open magazine earlier this year that “the rise in Muslim numbers is most noticeable in Assam, where they were found to make up 34.2 percent of the population in 2011, up by more than 3 percent since 2001. In West Bengal, this religious group’s share rose by almost 2 percent to 27 percent. In Kerala, it rose by 2 percent to 26.6 percent. Uttarakhand has seen a similar rise to 13.9 percent. In UP and Bihar, the increase is about 1 percent, with the Muslim headcount at 19.3 percent and 16.9 percent respectively. Jharkhand, Delhi and Maharashtra report similar increases, with the 2011 figures rising to 14.5, 12.9 and 11.5 percent respectively, while Karnataka has seen a rise of just below 1 percent to 12.9 percent.”

Key Deviation
The change in the vote share is one key deviation in the format of the game – a confident and decisive Muslim vote bank. We are now witnessing the rise of regional Muslim political parties – IUML, AIUDF and the MIM. This will force Muslims to rethink their normal voting patterns. The rise of the new Muslim vote bank will bring many changes including:

• The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) is the classic case of this changing pattern. It has moved out of Hyderabad and opened its account in Maharashtra, and is committed to other Muslim-dominated States such as Karnataka, Bihar, UP and West Bengal. The rise of regional Muslim parties will impact all.

• Branded secular parties – INC, SP, BSP and TMC — will see the end of traditional Muslim vote bank. If Muslim parties make a mark, it will force secular parties to accept one simple truth that they are essentially Hindu parties offering a protection ring for the minorities

• The definition of communal political parties will get a new meaning, which will include both ‘Hindu communal’ and ‘Muslim communal’

• Regional and national secular parties will progressively align among themselves with ‘Hindu communal’ and ‘Muslim communal’ parties. In Uttar Pradesh, the BSP or the SP will have to align with the likes of MIM if they want to make an impact

• The BJP will have to figure out whether polarisation of votes will lead to a reverse consolidation of the non-minority vote or can there be an alignment between ‘Hindu communal’ and ‘Muslim communal’ parties

• There are high chances that the new Muslim parties — IUML AIUDF and MIM — may end up building a strong mass base exactly the way the BSP did with the Dalits
No wonder, we are living in exciting times of vote bank politics, which is witnessing significant changes. But will this bring a positive change to the lives of the citizens?

Also published at https://telanganatoday.com/rise-of-regional-muslim-parties