Posts tagged: Karnataka

A classic case where the BJP may win without any strengths and INC may lose for its weaknesses

Coastal Karnataka

The region has three districts – Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi accounting for 19 seats. Coastal Karnataka is the stronghold of the BJP and all the three MP seats are held by it.

However, in the 2013 Assembly elections, the INC did extremely well here winning most of the seats. The BJP then was a divided house but now they are united. The JDS has very little presence and depends on the charisma of individual leaders.

Dakshina Kannada (Mangalore): The district has witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and INC in the last few elections. It has been a strong INC bastion but many INC leaders, including Janardhana Poojary, are unhappy with the Chief Minister and district in charge minister on their minority appeasement policies. This might help the BJP consolidate its position here.

Udupi: The BJP had swept this district in 2008 but lost ground in 2013. The united BJP in 2018 is a strong house with mass leaders like Haladi Srinivas Shetty and Jayaprakash Hegde.

Uttara Kannada (Karwar): It witnesses a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC except in two seats where the JDS is strong. This election, the BJP tried hard to consolidate its position riding on pro-Hindu sentiments.

Old Mysore and Bangalore

Bangalore is part of the Old Mysore region but the voting pattern here is very different from the rest of the region. It has for long been a stronghold of the BJP. Moreover, the major local community of the city – Brahmins — normally favour the BJP.

Though there has been a direct contest between the BJP and the INC, in two seats, the JDS puts up a tough fight. In 2013, even with the divided house, the BJP got 12 seats but in the 2015 BBMP polls, it could get only 100 of the 198 seats.

Bangalore Urban has 28 Assembly constituencies. Rest of the Old Mysore region has 87 Assembly seats in 13 districts — Davangere, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Shimoga, Chikkamagalur, Hassan, Kodagu, Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Bangalore Rural, Kolar, Chikkaballapur.
The INC dominates the region. While the BJP is a strong competition in Chikkamagalore, Shimoga, Kodagu, Davanagere, Tumkur, and Bangalore Rural, the JDS is strong in Mysore, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Hassan, and Ramanagara.

Old Mysore is dominated by Vokkaliga and Kurbas. The BJP is the only party that does not have good support of the Vokkaliga community. With the induction of SM Krishna, a Vokkaliga, the party may gain some confidence of these voters.

A detailed analysis will help us understand the situation of Old Mysore better.
Davangere: The area sees a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC except in one seat where the JDS too is present.

Chitradurga: Though it has witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and INC, independents have surprised them. This election, the united BJP is in a good position with ST leader B Sriramulu back in its fold.

Tumkur: Sees a triangular contest in 8 seats where BJP has a presence. In another three, it’s a contest between the INC and JDS. The JDS has a presence in all the seats.

Shimoga: Is the home district of BS Yeddyurappa and Eshwarappa. Shimoga is also considered as the Karnataka headquarters of the BJP. In a few seats here, it’s a triangular contest and in others, it is a direct fight between the BJP and the INC.

Chikkamagalur: In 2008, the BJP had won 4 seats but as a divided house, it could only win 2 seats. The minority politics of the INC will help the BJP consolidate Hindu voters here.
Hassan: It is the home district of HD Deve Gowda and the JDS is very strong here. This election we may witness a rise in BJP vote share owing to its Parivarthana Yatra.

Kodagu (Madikeri): Support for Tipu Jayanti by the INC would polarise votes in favour of the BJP.

Mysore: It is Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s home district. It would be a tough fight between the INC and JDS.

Chamarajnagar: Sees a triangular contest among the BJP, INC, and the JDS-BSP alliance. The results here would be very interesting as the JDS and the BSP have joined hands and prominent Dalit leader Sreenivasa Prasad has joined the BJP.

Mandya: The fight is between the INC and the JDS. BJP doesn’t have a presence in this district.

Bangalore Rural: In 2008, the BJP won 3 seats but lost all in 2013 election. Bangalore Rural is now dominated by the JDS.

Kolar: This is one of the rare areas where independents have a stronghold. — Concluded

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/too-tough-to-call

Demography, cultural and ethnic dynamics play an important role in this southern State

The Karnataka Assembly election is one of the key political contests before the parliamentary election of 2019. It is important for the INC to win Karnataka as it is the largest State where it is still in power. The BJP wants to win Karnataka as the State is perceived as the gateway to south India. It is also important for the JDS as its performance will decide its future in politics.

There are many political parties in the field — INC, BJP, JDS, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Maharastra Ekikarana Samiti (MES), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Mahila Empowerment Party (MEP) — but the fight is mainly among the INC, BJP and the JDS.

It is important to know the demography, cultural, and ethnic dynamics of Karnataka to understand the election dynamics. Karnataka can be divided into four distinct regions – North-West Karnataka (Mumbai Karnataka), North-East Karnataka (Hyderabad Karnataka), Coastal Karnataka, and Old Mysore and Bangalore. In this part, we analyse the first two regions:

North-West Karnataka (Mumbai Karnataka)
Mumbai Karnataka is a stronghold of the BJP. In a few seats, the JDS can challenge the dominance of the INC and the BJP, but this dominance is owing to strong candidates rather than the party. Mumbai Karnataka is Lingayat-dominated. Siddaramiah is trying his best to break the monolithic BJP vote bank by giving separate religious status for Lingayats. The other dominant force is Marathi influence and the Mahadayi issue.

The popularity of the BJP here is because of mass leaders BS Yeddyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Prahlad Joshi, and the foundational work done by the RSS. Moreover, the pro-Muslim image of the INC would also help the BJP consolidate vote share in this region. A detailed analysis of all the six districts will help understand the situation better.

Belgaum: Of the 18 seats, there has been a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC in 15. In three seats, the MES is strong and there is a straight fight between the MES and BJP. The BJP is quite strong in this district. In 2013, the divided BJP got 11 seats – BJP (9), KJP (1), BSRCP (1), with roughly 40% votes. If the BJP manages to consolidate Hindu (Kannada and Marathi) votes, it can win most seats.

Bagalkot: It was BJP’s fort in 2008 with 47% vote share, but the numbers changed in 2013 and the party won only one seat. The Parivarthana Yatra by Yeddyurappa was well received and if BJP maintains the momentum, it could double its tally.

Karnataka Election

Bijapur: The INC may challenge the dominance of the BJP here by fueling the Lingayat issue but the BJP local leadership has put up a spirited fight.

Dharwad: This region witnesses a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC. The JDS has a presence in one seat. In 2013, the united BJP got roughly 40% and INC 37% vote share; and in 2008, it was 47% and 39% respectively.

Gadag: The BJP had swept all the seats in 2008 and lost all in 2013 due to the division of votes between the BJP, KJP and the BSRCP.

Haveri: The BJP is very strong here and had won 5 seats in 2008 with 42% votes. With strong candidates, it may repeat the performance.

The Mumbai Karnataka region contributed to the success of BJP in 2008. Backed by its Parivarthana Yatra, the region is likely to do the same this time too. But the Lingayat card may change the numbers.

North-East Karnataka (Hyderabad Karnataka)
There is some amount of Telugu dominance in this region. With 40 Assembly constituencies, it has a strong mix of Dalit, Minorities, Reddy-Vokkaliga and Lingayat voters.

The region, on one hand, is dominated by BJP leaders like Reddy brothers and B Sriramulu and, on the other, is home to tallest INC leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Anil Lad. All the six districts – Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Bellary, Koppal would witness a close contest between the INC and the BJP.

Bidar: The JDS can play a spoiler. In the last election, the united BJP got 38% and the united INC (after Karnataka Makkala Paksha joining it) had 34% vote share. The Parivarthana Yatra might have a positive influence here.

Gulbarga: This district has 13 Assembly constituencies. Here, Yadgir needs a special mention as this district was created by the BJP and is now the party’s stronghold. The JDS has a strong candidate in one seat. Moreover, the united BJP also performed very well in zilla panchayat elections though, the INC won the Gulbarga parliament seat. The fight here will mostly be a function of the right candidate selection.

Raichur: Here 4 seats are reserved for the STs and one for SCs. The district has mostly witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and the INC except in 2 seats where the JDS has strong candidates. It is important to note that in the last Assembly election, of the 47% vote share of united BJP, 17% was managed by the Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party (BSRCP) of Sreeramulu. With Sreeramulu back in the BJP, the party could do well.

Bellary: While 5 seats are reserved for STs, 2 are for SCs. Bellary is Sreeramulu’s home district and a power centre of the Reddy Brothers.

Koppal: JDS is strong in one seat. As the BJP was a divided house, the INC won the last election in this district. If the voters go back to the united BJP, the same will be reflected in the results.

The outcome of the 2018 election results of the Hyderabad Karnataka region would mostly decide the fate of the next government in the State. This is the only region where the fight between the INC and the BJP would be very close and critical. In the other regions, the outcome is mostly defined and very little can be changed.

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/close-and-critical-call

During the last Assembly elections in Karnataka, the BJP was a splintered house and this made the task of the INC easy. In fact, the BJP in Karnataka, for long, has been struggling with leadership issues between BS Yeddyurappa and KS Eshwarappa. This has also damaged the morale of the party workers in the State.

But in recent times, the leadership issues in Karnataka have been managed very well. The BJP in Karnataka is now not just a party of BS Yeddyurappa and KS Eshwarappa. Other leaders like HN Ananth Kumar, Jagadish Shettar, DV Sadananda Gowda, R Ashoka and S Suresh Kumar have also gained prominence, thereby broadbasing the party’s leadership in the State.

Nurturing Leadership
Moreover, after the last Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership tried to resolve issues by nurturing young leaders and attracting prominent mass leaders from the INC and the JDS. The party has attracted many heavyweights like SM Krishna – one of the tallest leaders of Gowda community, Srinivas Prasad – a prominent Dalit leader, Jaya Prakash – a strong Bunt leader and Kumara Bangarappa – a popular leader of the Idiga community.

The party has also created a second rung leadership that connects it with all prominent castes in Karnataka and now has a fair representation of all prominent castes viz CT Ravi – a Vokkaliga, V Sunil Kumar – an Idiga, Shobha Karandlaje – a Bunt-Vokkaliga, and Prahlad Joshi – a Brahmin.

The party has a strong vote share in coastal Karnataka and after the joining of Bunt leader Jaya Prakash, it has only grown in strength. Similarly, it has a strong base in Bombay Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka and may win most of its seats there. But with the help of new leaders, the BJP must increase its vote share in south Karnataka where it has lagged behind.

If all its leaders work in tandem, the BJP can get close to forming a government. They may still need to join hands with a few independents or JDS to form a stable government.

Fading Fortress of JDS
The biggest challenge for the JDS is its positioning. The JDS is considered as a party of a single community – Vokkaligas, run by a political family. This positioning, one one hand is its biggest strength owing to its vote bank, but on the other hand, hampers its growth and stops it from emerging as a pan-Karnataka party.

While we are witnessing the rise of regional political parties across India, Karnataka is witnessing a decline in the popularity of regional parties. The JDS, the only prominent regional party in Karnataka, has reduced itself to a party of agriculture and Vokkaligas. Its core vote bank — the Vokkaligas — too seems to be shifting their loyalty as they see the rise of DK Shivakumar in the INC. Moreover, urban Karnataka believes that HD Kumaraswamy is not a very progressive leader.

It is also popularly believed that the JDS leadership is losing control over its local leadership. The same is reflected in the conduct of MLAs Zameer Ahmed Khan, Akhand Srinivasa Murthy, Balakrishna, Chaluvarayaswamy, Bheema Naik, Iqbal Ansari and Ramesh Bandisiddegowda, who voted against the party guidelines during the last Rajya Sabha elections. These rebel MLAs have decided to shift to the INC. The rebel leaders have raised issues related to the growing perception of it being a family run party and its leadership. Amid all these controversies, the party has lost a good number of mass leaders and voters’ trust.

But this is not the first time that the JDS is facing such challenges. In the past, the core vote bank of the party had backed former Prime Minister Deve Gowda despite odds. The leadership of Deve Gowda has been the biggest strength of the party. I am sure that in the ensuing election too, with the help of his loyal followers, he will manage to retain most of the current Assembly seats.

The JDS enjoys a strong vote share in Mandya, Mysuru and in the Hyderabad Karnataka region but has little or no presence beyond these regions. Though the party has scope to do well under the guidance of Deve Gowda, it is not innovative and aggressive enough. It is reluctant to explore new equations to win additional vote bank.

The Next Election
The next election is going to be an intense triangular fight among the INC, BJP, and the JDS. A pre-poll alliance is mostly a big no for all political parties but a post-poll alliance may be an option.

If one were to go by the popular sentiments, we are likely to witness a hung Assembly and JDS and INC will join hands to form the government. But politics makes strange bedfellows and I believe that it will be BJP-JDU government and not an INC-JDU if there is a hung Assembly.
An arrangement between the BJP and JDS sounds impossible as we all believe that BS Yediyurappa must not have forgotten the betrayal of HD Kumaraswamy. But we must understand that Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy are seasoned politicians and they would align the political equation to their benefit. The BJP central team will also not let go of the opportunity and find out a win-win for both Kumaraswamy and Yediyurappa.

Most importantly, it will be advantage JDS if they join BJP in case of a hung Assembly. The BJP-JDS combination will be a win-win alliance for municipality, State government, as well as for the Centre.

Also Published at https://telanganatoday.com/a-hung-assembly-on-the-horizon