Triangular contest on cards

Triangular contest on cards

by with No Comment Politics

Anti-incumbency is yet to set in and if Siddaramaiah plays positive, he has a good chance to retain power

The Indian National Congress (INC) is one of the strongest political parties in Karnataka. It has managed to retain 35% vote share in the State during the last three Assembly elections.

Moreover, the spread of this vote share is almost uniform across the State unlike the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal Secular (JDS), which have pockets of strong vote banks.

The regional party, JDS, has held on to its 18-20% vote bank for the last three Assembly elections. The BJP has been adding voters to its fold during the last two decades, and in the last two elections, its vote share hovered around 30%.

Karnataka is one of the unique States where all three parties have strong vote banks and mostly these loyal voters don’t shift sides. This is reflected in the vote share of these political parties over the last two decades.

In the ensuing Assembly election, it is likely that we will witness a very interesting fight among the three key political parties of Karnataka – INC, BJP, and JDS. To understand the emerging electoral situation, let us explore the current state of all the three parties.

Stronghold of INC
If I were to go by the popular belief that there is a growing voice of anti-incumbency in Karnataka, I would have to pronounce the fall of INC in Karnataka. But I would not buy the argument blindly that INC has failed to retain its popularity in Karnataka, and people are waiting for elections to teach them a lesson. Yes, there is a murmur of anti-incumbency in a few pockets.

The sentiment of anti-incumbency in a few pockets is very normal for any incumbent government. But the anti-incumbency is not uniform across Karnataka and there are pockets where voters are happy with the work of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. So, it will be wrong to classify the current situation as strong anti-incumbency.

This anti-incumbency can be neutralised with the help of a few positive moves and that is what Siddaramaiah has been doing lately. He has mostly neutralised the mood of anti-incumbency with the help of pro-poor policies, stand on Hindi imposition, positive moves towards the Karnataka Flag issue among others. These moves in recent times have helped the Chief Minister establish himself as one of the tallest mass leaders in the State.

Mass Leaders
In Karnataka, the INC has many other strong leaders like DK Shivakumar, G Parameshwara, KH Muniyappa and SN Patil. The collective might of these mass leaders can help it win the desired vote share.

Moreover, in recent times the INC has played the caste equation very well. It has strong representation from all influential castes in the State. For instance, Siddaramaiah is the tallest leader from the Kuruba community, DK Shivakumar has emerged as the strongest leader of Vokkaligas, G Parameshwara and KH Muniyappa are strong Dalit leaders, SN Patil represents the dominant Lingayat community and Jarkiholi brothers have a huge following among tribals. It will only be right to say that no other political party has such well-defined representation.

The JDS is mostly perceived as a party of the Vokkaligas and the BJP as a party of the Lingayats. The INC enjoys the strong backing of Muslims, Kurubas and Dalits, but it is perceived as a party of all castes and religions.

This is why unlike the BJP and JDS, the INC enjoys a uniform vote share across all Assembly constituencies. The INC is a strong player in all the 242 Assembly constituencies. Its candidates have been the winner or a close second in almost all the Assembly seats.

Rise of BJP
In the last Assembly election in Karnataka, the BJP was a divided house. The vote share was split between – BJP, KJP of Yeddyurappa and BSRCP of Bellary Sriramulu. Now that all three parties are back as one united party, the BJP vote share increased to 32% in the Assembly election of 2013. The united BJP also managed to get 43.4% vote share in the 2014 parliamentary election as against 41.2% vote share in the previous elections.

In the ensuing election, which the BJP will contest as a united, cohesive party, it is expected to pose a much stiffer challenge to the INC.

Also published at https://telanganatoday.com/triangular-contest-on-cards

Who Moved My Media!

Who Moved My Media!

by with No Comment BusinessPolitics

The key to winning the war of communication and media pre-independence era and for long time post-Independence era were Print – Newspapers and Periodicals, and Radio. The big names of the Pre-Independence India were either the owners or the editors of the Newspapers or Periodicals. The tallest leaders of Pre-Independence India were controlling the communication. Those were the times of ‘Socialist communication’. The owners or the editors of the newspapers or periodicals had no interest in making profits but the idea was dissemination of this information. The congress had controlled the communication in the Pre-Independence Indian era by the help of having great thinkers, philosophers, and editors in the party.

The time started to change in 80s and the focus shifted to Television but the core to winning the war of communication remained unchanged. The Newspapers and Radio still enjoyed the state of dominance. We can safely say that this was the gold era of communication – The era of ‘Capitalist Communication’. This is the time when every big business house and political parties had some interest in owning the pie of media house. This is the time when we saw growth of Lutyens Media – who believed in ‘you scratch my back & I scratch yours’! The Lutyens Media till recently were controlling the media landscape of India but the power centre of the media houses started to change roughly a decade back. This golden era of communication was absolutely in control of the congress with the help of Lutyens Media.

In last one decade or so the emergence of internet, mobile communication, and social media has changed the communication landscape completely. The power of the communication and the ownership of the media has changed from the hands of media owners to the hands of the citizens – evolved digital enthusiasts and influencers. We are going through the time of ‘Democratization of Communication’. Congress and other political parties for more than a century controlled the communication but the control of the media is transferring from the hands of the bright and mighty of political and business world to the hands of the common citizens.

This Democratization of Communication needs to be controlled and make in use for our benefit. This new form of control is only possible through the controlling the minds of the citizen with help of impactful content. Task is not easy but not very tough either. The mantra of winning the new age communication war is all about engaging evolved digital citizens and influencers. The campaign management team should master the art of engaging the new age communication stake owners in plotting the campaign.

A good campaign manager should be a skilled marketer with strong understanding of creative, content, and technology. He should have good knowledge about different tactics and methods to achieve success. Most importantly, he should have proven leadership in the field of marketing and digital communication. It is important to understand that no election campaign can be a success by a single person’s effort, for this team effort is required. A great campaign management team comprises of researchers who have good understanding of politics, and economy, content writers, and journalists.  It will not be wrong to say that to win the new age communication one needs to build an in-house media organization. A media organization that is free from the clutter of yester-years media approaches. This is new age media that requires new age communication equation. 

Also published at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/who-moved-my-media-braj-mohan-chaturvedi-/

Who Moved My (Dalit) Voters!

Who Moved My (Dalit) Voters!

by with No Comment Politics

Dalits in India are one of the largest voting block. The sumtotal of all dalit voters is more than one-fourth of overall voters. The fact that they are the largest voting block makes them the most important voting class.

Dalits have traditionaly aligned themselves with the Congress ideology. It will not be wrong to say that dalits were and still are one of the largest vote bank for congress.

The dalit vote bank started to deflect from congress roughly three decades back. This major change in the indian politics started when various small and niche parties like BSP, LJP, and others identified the fact that Dalits are one of the largest vote bank and started focusing on Dalits. This resulted into a sharp division of dalit vote bank between the congress and other niche parties.

The dynamics of dalit vote bank changed once again when BJP started focusing on the largest voters block – Dalits. It will not be wrong to say that till recently, BJP was not in the game of Dalit Vote Bank Politics but a few intelligent moves by Shah and Modi has divided the vote bank further more into the Congress, niche parties and BJP.

The various Pro-Dalit moves by BJP has helped it win a small segment of key Dalit vote bank. It can be seen as a big challenge to the dalit vote bank dominance by all niche parties, and Congress. The biggest blow was seen in the last UP election when a small shift in a dalit vote bank had made BSP absolutely irrelevant.

The impact of this change is not only seen on ground but also has changed the evolving political equation – ‘Mahagadbandhan’. It will not be wrong to say that the chang in dalit vote bank has forced Nitish to shift sides. Nitish realised that this new Pro-Dalit and Pro-Poor narrative will wipe out JDU in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections the way it wiped out Mayawati and BSP in 2017 UP Assembly Election.

The small regional parties like JDU, LJP, and others are realizing that the Opposition has not been able to build any credible narrative around the Pro-Dalit and Pro-Poor plank. They are not even in position to unite and nurture the basic Pro-Dalit and Pro-Poor narrative. 

Thus, rather than becoming irrelevant to politics it is better to align with the winning team. Congress needs to act on Pro-Dalit and Pro-Poor, and they need to act now!

It will not be wrong to say that if Congress can unite Dalit vote bank they will not only win the overall vote share but also will be in position to unite Opposition. The task is not tough as dalits were one of the largest vote bank of Congress and still it is the largest support base for Congress. All that congress needs to do is reunite them back into one single block.

Also Published at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/who-moved-my-dalit-voters-braj-mohan-chaturvedi-/

Dynamics of MahaGadbandhan

Dynamics of MahaGadbandhan

by with No Comment PoliticsUncategorized

Indira Gandhi has been one of the finest Prime Ministers Indian democracy has experienced. She with the help of all her populist moves like nationalization of banks, Pokhran nuclear explosion, abolishment of privy purses, Garibi Hatao, division of Pakistan attained the status which was larger than life.

That was the time when politics was not about the Congress and others, it was the time when politics was about Indira and all other parties. Indira was beyond party lines and carried huge brand image. Indira was such a strong leader that Dev Kant Barooah, Congress president, in 1976 mention that India is Indira, and Indira is India.

Almost after forty years, history is kind of repeating itself. This time it is about Narendra Damodardas Modi. Modi has yet not reached the popularity that Indira enjoyed but we can easily say that BJP is Modi, and Modi is BJP.

Today, the politics in India is about the might of Modi versus all others. It will be wrong to say that it is about BJP and all others. Yes, the scenario is almost comparable to the times of Indira Gandhi when she enjoyed popularity beyond comparison.

All opposition parties understand the situation very well. They also understand the influence Modi enjoys. They are aware of the fact that the position which Modi enjoys is not given to him but he has earned it at every stage of his political career. It will not be wrong to say that Modi is Chandragupta Maurya of modern times.

The opposition understands that to fight Modi they need to construct a united front – a MahaGadbandhan of all opposition parties. The kind of MahaGadbandhan Opposition had created in Bihar. The MahaGadbandhan in Bihar enjoyed a larger and inclusive vote share. A vote share which was much larger than the vote share of BJP. Nitish Kumar as a prominent face of the MahaGadbandhan was yet another key feature of the MahaGadbandhan in Bihar. The only thing which was not right with the MahaGadbandhan in Bihar was the ideological mix. It remained an opportunistic alliance.

The success of the MahaGadbandhan was once again attempted in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election, but the experiment failed. It was seen as absolute opportunistic alliance with has no future. To my mind the MahaGadbandhan was a failure from idea to implementation. It was more like a desperate measure to tame the juggernaut Modi.

The two recent experiments with MahaGadbandhan in recent times and such other historical moves in seventies and nineties makes us think on the idea of MahaGadbandhan and its validity. A few questions that comes to my mind include: Is MahaGadbandhan of all opposition parties possible? Can the MahaGadbandhan survive the test of the time? Can the leaders of MahaGadbandhan workout a common minimum program that is beyond the idea of secularism? Will there be any defined ideology of the MahaGadbandhan? Can the leaders of different political parties elect one credible leader of the MahaGadbandhan? Who will be the ultimate leader of the MahaGadbandhan?

In current situation, even if we have affirmative answers to most of the above-mentioned questions the future of MahaGadbandhan still looks not so bright. The non-BJP parties can be classified in three categories. The Core Opposition, the Ideology Seeker, and Strong BJP allies.

The core group which is ready to form MahaGadbandhan and is promoting idea of an alliance which is secular in nature. They promote themselves as a secular force against the communal BJP. The core group includes INC, NC, IUML, JDS, NCP, SP, BSP, TMC, DMK, AAP, RLD, RJD, Left. If we evaluate the vote share and the probable seat share we would realize that at present they command roughly 100 seats.

The second major group which is not clear with the idea of the MahaGadbandhan but may join the group if the alliance offers attractive opportunity. They mostly have not bought the idea of the secular alliance and mostly awaiting the right ideological mix. In my views, the other set of parties that do not believe in the idea of a MahaGadbandhan based on the idea of a secular alliance include JDU, TDP, AIADMK, YRSC, TRS, BJD, SS, MNS. This group though is wary of the increasing might of Modi and the dominance of his brand of politics. This group has control on another 100 parliamentary constituencies.

Even if the Core Opposition, and the Ideology Seeker join hands they might win a few more than the 200 parliamentary constituencies. The number still will not be sufficient to for the government. They might project themselves as the alliance that will be the united opposition.  I can say with certain assurance that the third set which is part of the NDA core group and the key BJP allies is very prominent and far from the impact of anti-incumbency. This group is still gaining ground and increasing its vote share. The key BJP allies have mostly accepted the dominance of Modi and his brand of politics include LJP, SAD, AD, and other smaller parties. These parties are thriving on the local leadership and the charisma of the brand Modi. These parties are kind of extension of BJP political-DNA. I will not be surprised if some of these small parties get merged into BJP before 2019 elections and a new set of the ideology seekers join NDA.

The dynamics of politics in India is evolving and it is beyond the binary equations of the secular and communal. The new equation is extremely complex and probably beyond the dynamics of caste, and religion. I am not sure if the key players of the proposed MahaGadbandhan are analysing the emerging political equation and its impact.

Also Published at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dynamics-mahagadbandhan-braj-mohan-chaturvedi-/